Over the past years, Europe has made impressive strides in improving its short-term energy security—by rapidly reducing dependence on Russian gas, increasing biomethane production, and strengthening monitoring and emergency measures. However, current frameworks still focus mainly on individual energy carriers and short-term reliability. As the energy system transitions to a decarbonised, electrified and more integrated system, a broader and long-term perspective is urgently needed.
In collaboration with Trinomics and commissioned by the Dutch Ministry for Climate and Green Growth, Common Futures developed a new evaluation framework for assessing the security of energy supply in a future energy system. The study takes a systemic view and focuses on long-term resilience, with a time horizon up to 2045.
Our approach
We reviewed Dutch and international definitions of energy security, analysed emerging risks in a climate-neutral energy system, and developed a structured assessment framework. This framework combines quantitative indicators (e.g. capacity, flexibility, redundancy) with qualitative aspects such as risk acceptance, cost impacts and systemic resilience. We then tested this framework on five energy system scenarios, including those from the Dutch National Energy System Programme (NPE).
An integrated framework to identify vulnerabilities
While oil, gas and electricity are each monitored separately, the (increasing) interdependence between sectors—and the rising impact of external risks like cyber threats and extreme weather—demand a shift in how we define and assess energy security.
The developed framework supports robust decision-making on infrastructure development, risk management and system design under uncertainty. Importantly, it allows for the inclusion of cross-sectoral dependencies and long-term shocks—elements often missing in current modelling practice.
View our recent blogpost highlighting three key insights from this work.
