Filling the gaps on Europe’s energy security of supply

Efforts to ensure energy security focus on solving immediate issues while long-term threats exist remain unaddressed. The European Commission now evaluates the security of supply framework. This offers the opportunity for a long-term and whole-system perspective.

European navies patrol to protect subsea cables, imports of Russian gas have been cut dramatically, and Europe produces 20% more biomethane each year. It’s remarkable how Europe boosted its energy security. However, current policy efforts primarily target individual energy carriers and immediate issues, and do not address long-term risks and the resilience of the energy system as a whole, without accounting for cross-sectoral dependencies, or future risks like extreme weather or cybersecurity threats. Also, security of supply risks are not explicitly incorporated in energy system modelling that informs infrastructure planning.

European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen will adapt the security of supply framework,¹ which offers the opportunity to take a whole-system and longer-term perspective. Based on our recent study with Trinomics for the Dutch Ministry of Climate and Green Growth, we highlight three areas that show why a systemic and long-term perspective is needed – and how it can be implemented.

Long term view on cyber security

The energy system is becoming increasingly digital – and therefore more vulnerable to cyber threats. Smart grids, connected heat pumps, and EV charging infrastructure rely on IT systems that are targeted by foreign powers. In recent years, awareness of these risks has increased, and short-term detection and response systems have improved. However, the long-term development of cyber threats is highly uncertain. A European energy security framework should therefore evaluate the vulnerability of the future energy system to cyber-attacks and its resilience to deal with possible resulting disruptions.

Mind the black swans: the emerging risk of climate change impacts

Europe’s energy system is becoming increasingly weather-dependent, as a result of increasing renewable production from sun and wind and the growing electrification of demand. While this shift is essential for decarbonisation, it also increases the system’s vulnerability to weather extremes.

Energy system models already account for weather variability. However, they use historical weather data – that may not reflect what is to come. Climate change influences weather patterns, which can have unforeseen consequences for the energy system. While the average temperature in Europe is expected to rise, the gradual weakening of the Atlantic Ocean circulation (commonly known as the Gulf Stream) may result in a five degree drop in average temperature in Northwestern Europe, leading to very cold winters. How will low temperature heating systems deal with that?

Also, climate change can lead to more and longer ‘windless winter weeks’ with not just limited solar-PV but also limited wind power production. What will happen to our energy supply if we face two of such periods in a single winter, in combination with a high electricity demand for heating?

So what to do? The results of climate modelling should be used as inputs to energy system modelling scenarios. This will improve our insights on how the energy system should be planned so it can deal with changes in weather patterns.  

Enabling robust electrification by smart coupling with molecules

Electrification leads to increased energy efficiency in cars and home heating and large volumes of clean electricity can be produced within Europe. But what happens if the supply of offshore windpower is suddenly disrupted?

Electrification can be made more robust by creating coupling points with existing gas infrastructure, allowing biomethane and hydrogen to deal with reduced supply of electricity. This helps avoid reliance on just one infrastructure. Coupling the infrastructures of electricity, (bio)methane and hydrogen allows cost-effective seasonal storage of renewable molecules to be used to support the electricity system.

For example, having dual-fuel power plants that run on biomethane and hydrogen can ramp up electricity production in case of a disruption of windpower or solar-PV. And in homes, hybrid heat pumps that can switch between electricity and biomethane can flexibly deal with (sudden) reduced supply of either electricity or biomethane.

The need and benefits of sector coupling to in scenario’s with security of supply risks can be more explicitly considered in energy system modelling and infrastructure planning.

Comprehensive long-term view on energy security

Having weathered the 2022 energy crisis relatively successfully, the EU is now gearing up to create a new framework  security of energy supply. This could include a framework to evaluate the future resilience of the energy system from a total system perspective. Our recent study offers starting points for such framework. Commissioner Jørgensen has the opportunity to create a broad and forward-looking framework to keep Europe’s energy supply secure.